Sunday, January 27, 2008

Monday, January 21, 2008

Nice Resource for Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Actions

http://www.newratings.com/

Spike in Credit Default Swaps

The recent spike in CDS prices indicates the deterioration in the perception of credit quality. Investors see a growing chance that many companies won't be able to pay their debt.

http://www.markit.com/information/products/cdx/curves.html

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Retail Industry Notes

Positives:
a. Rising same-store sales
b. Healthy macro factors that drive consumption, such as labor market (non-farm payrolls) and consumer confidence (although does not necessarily correlate with consumer spending)

Negatives:
a. Unreasonably warm weather during holiday season (like in 2007), which hurts sales of cold weather merchandise
b. If inventory growth outpace sales growth
c. High gas prices, which can limit consumer spending http://home.doe.gov/pricestrends/index.htm